From Calculated Risk, -- job losses in the current recession compared with other post WWII recessions.
It is bad, very, very, bad and in my view will worsen unless more government stimulus money is pumped directly into the real economy and not into the banks.
Below are some fundamental numbers and charts:
America, according to the Census Bureau has a population of about 308 million people.
Of this 308 million, about 238 million are over the age of 16 are not "institutionalized" (jail, military, etc) and therefore available to work if they so desire, and if there are jobs available. They form the "Civilian Non Institutional Population".
Of that 238 million, about 153 million, according to the BLS, have said they want to work. This group of 153 million is called the "Civilian Labor Force". Of these 153.5 mill, about 139 mill are "employed", leaving about 14.5 mill "unemployed". The U3 unemployment rate measures the ratio of the 14.5 million "unemployed" to the 153 million "civilian labor force" -- it is now just under 10%.
However there are now several million Americans in the 238 million "civilian non institutional" Americans who have either
To put these employment numbers in recent context, the chart below shows how the last decade looks: The chart below is from the FRED database of the St Louis Fed, based on BLS data.
Note that not only has "employment" fallen, but the "civilian labor force" has stopped growing. Meaning that the government have determined or been told by a certain number of people who once were in the labor force, that they are no longer looking for work.
Playing around a little more with the data from the chart above, and focusing on the last five years, gives us the chart below which includes the U6 number for August 2010.
Which says that the difference between the trended civilian labor force (dashed red line) normally available for work, and the full time employees actually working (U6), is in the region of (158-128) = approximately 30 million underemployed Americans. And that, I believe, is not anywhere near the depth of the unemployment problem which will evolve if the problem is left to the mercies of "The Market".
One more chart. Below is the annual change in the civilian labor force. The dark line in the chart is the five year moving average of the annual increase in the civilian labor force which is shown in the light line.
So, eyeballing the chart above, every year the American economy must provide in the region of 1.5 million to 2 million jobs a year, or about 150,000 jobs/month to prevent the unemployment rate from getting worse. This statistic is in line with the growth of the American population which is growing at the rate of just under 1% a year. That is an increase of somewhat under 3 million/year with a preponderance of babies, and a large retiring cohort of baby boomers.
If we plan to decrease the U3 unemployment rate to, say 5% in five years (employing about 160 million people in say 2016), we must create a total of about 8-12 million jobs to stay even, and another approximately 12-16 million or so jobs to catch up, for a total of about 20-28 million jobs in five years, or about 350,000-450,000 jobs per month.
Not a snowball's chance in hell with current policies!
The Tea Partiers and the Palins and the Becks are just a mild version of what I see coming if the Obama administration is not able to solve the unemployment problem.
Unfortunately, the righteous fury of the unemployed American family will be loosed on the wrong targets.
We will again be subjected to variations on the old themes of "radical muslims", "cheese eating surrender monkeys", "currency manipulating Chinese", "illegal fence jumping druggies from Mexico" and whatever other targets of hate our corporate advertisers deem profitable.
The very people who got us into this mess will become the Pied Pipers. The children of America will replay the sad tale of the children of Hamelin.
War is what Americans will want. And war is what their leaders will give them. As ever, we will make war on "bad guys" who "throw acid in the face of young women", who "hate us because we are free", whose "weapons threaten world stability", who just happen to have the resources we desperately need, and on whose poppy fields we will sacrifice the children of America's poor.
Once again it will be the children of the poor who will volunteer to put themselves in harm's way because we bribe them with promises of an education and jobs they cannot otherwise obtain. Under current policies the ranks of the poor will continue increasing.
What need do we have of a draft?
And the Tea Partiers will do everything they can to set the tumbrils running.
We will be "Restoring Honor" I guess.
Below are some fundamental numbers and charts:
Of this 308 million, about 238 million are over the age of 16 are not "institutionalized" (jail, military, etc) and therefore available to work if they so desire, and if there are jobs available. They form the "Civilian Non Institutional Population".
Of that 238 million, about 153 million, according to the BLS, have said they want to work. This group of 153 million is called the "Civilian Labor Force". Of these 153.5 mill, about 139 mill are "employed", leaving about 14.5 mill "unemployed". The U3 unemployment rate measures the ratio of the 14.5 million "unemployed" to the 153 million "civilian labor force" -- it is now just under 10%.
However there are now several million Americans in the 238 million "civilian non institutional" Americans who have either
- stopped looking for work and are therefore not counted in the civilian labor force of 153.5 million, but would like a job, or
- become involuntary "part time" or "marginally employed workers.
To put these employment numbers in recent context, the chart below shows how the last decade looks: The chart below is from the FRED database of the St Louis Fed, based on BLS data.
Note that not only has "employment" fallen, but the "civilian labor force" has stopped growing. Meaning that the government have determined or been told by a certain number of people who once were in the labor force, that they are no longer looking for work.
Playing around a little more with the data from the chart above, and focusing on the last five years, gives us the chart below which includes the U6 number for August 2010.
Which says that the difference between the trended civilian labor force (dashed red line) normally available for work, and the full time employees actually working (U6), is in the region of (158-128) = approximately 30 million underemployed Americans. And that, I believe, is not anywhere near the depth of the unemployment problem which will evolve if the problem is left to the mercies of "The Market".
One more chart. Below is the annual change in the civilian labor force. The dark line in the chart is the five year moving average of the annual increase in the civilian labor force which is shown in the light line.
So, eyeballing the chart above, every year the American economy must provide in the region of 1.5 million to 2 million jobs a year, or about 150,000 jobs/month to prevent the unemployment rate from getting worse. This statistic is in line with the growth of the American population which is growing at the rate of just under 1% a year. That is an increase of somewhat under 3 million/year with a preponderance of babies, and a large retiring cohort of baby boomers.
If we plan to decrease the U3 unemployment rate to, say 5% in five years (employing about 160 million people in say 2016), we must create a total of about 8-12 million jobs to stay even, and another approximately 12-16 million or so jobs to catch up, for a total of about 20-28 million jobs in five years, or about 350,000-450,000 jobs per month.
Not a snowball's chance in hell with current policies!
The Tea Partiers and the Palins and the Becks are just a mild version of what I see coming if the Obama administration is not able to solve the unemployment problem.
Unfortunately, the righteous fury of the unemployed American family will be loosed on the wrong targets.
We will again be subjected to variations on the old themes of "radical muslims", "cheese eating surrender monkeys", "currency manipulating Chinese", "illegal fence jumping druggies from Mexico" and whatever other targets of hate our corporate advertisers deem profitable.
The very people who got us into this mess will become the Pied Pipers. The children of America will replay the sad tale of the children of Hamelin.
War is what Americans will want. And war is what their leaders will give them. As ever, we will make war on "bad guys" who "throw acid in the face of young women", who "hate us because we are free", whose "weapons threaten world stability", who just happen to have the resources we desperately need, and on whose poppy fields we will sacrifice the children of America's poor.
Once again it will be the children of the poor who will volunteer to put themselves in harm's way because we bribe them with promises of an education and jobs they cannot otherwise obtain. Under current policies the ranks of the poor will continue increasing.
What need do we have of a draft?
And the Tea Partiers will do everything they can to set the tumbrils running.
We will be "Restoring Honor" I guess.
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