Chart 1: *METHODOLOGY: Total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, is from the Current Employment Statistics survey. The employment-to-working- age-population ratio used, 59.36%, is the June 1990-Nov. 2007 average; the working-age population is based on the Current Population Survey, and is projected to grow at the 2000-10 average, 0.103% a month. Recovery job growth rates are based on the periods Jan. 1993-Dec. 1999 and Jan. 2004-Dec. 2006.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (projections calculated by The New York Times based on B.L.S. figures)
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How is "Employment" measured?
Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the “Employment Situation Report”, also known as the Labor Report. The report is made up of two separate surveys.
Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the “Employment Situation Report”, also known as the Labor Report. The report is made up of two separate surveys.
1. The Establishment Survey: (Current Employment Statistics) gathers data from 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering 400,000 work sites, or about one-third of all payroll workers.. It is the most comprehensive labor report available, covering about one-third of all non-farm workers nationwide.
2. The Household Survey: (Current Population Statistics) samples about 60,000 households and produces a figure representing the total number of individuals out of work, and from that the national unemployment rate. The sample size represents about .06% of total households.
The figures quoted in my previous post here of a total US population of about 308 million Americans, and a total employed population of about 139 milllion Americans are taken from the household survey.
Chart 1 above uses figures from both reports to estimate future job growth based on various historical post recession job growth rates.
Most of my own detailed posts on employment will use the Establishment Survey “Current Employment Statistics (CES)” data -- it is finer grained but does not measure total employment and total unemployment.
Chart 2 shows the total number of employed Americans (U3 measure) from the household survey (CPS) and the number of Americans employed on “non farm payrolls” measured in the establishment survey (CES).
Chart 2: Number of "non farm" and "total" Americans employed in January of each year
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Why the difference between "Total" and "NFP"?
In August 2010 the ratio of total employees/non farm employees was 137/130 = 1.05, a ratio which has been almost constant for many years. The difference between the two numbers, about 7 million people is due to differences in methodology:
In August 2010 the ratio of total employees/non farm employees was 137/130 = 1.05, a ratio which has been almost constant for many years. The difference between the two numbers, about 7 million people is due to differences in methodology:
- “NFP data exclude proprietors, the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farmworkers, and domestic workers. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded.”
- Jobs, not individuals (19 Nov 2009) Note that the NFP is based on surveys of jobs, not individuals. Someone with two jobs may be counted twice.
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